China Steel
Demand Forecast Report (2006-2020)
Introduction
The report analyses China steel demand situation deeply,
including the sum of steel demand, and steel dosage and
steel breed of important industries including construction,
mechanism, shipping, automobile, household appliances.
Report forecasts logically the China steel demand situation
from 2006 to 2020 based on consumption data and mathematical
model that opened out steel demand deeply being assisted by
expert investigation. This report inosculates demand data
and production data of background station industries
including construction, mechanism, shipping, household
appliances. And its economic model has sound theory
foundation and get a better correlation result. This report
is an authority reference material of researching future
demand of China's steel industry.
Table of Contents
1 Forecast of Influence of China's increasing GDP to the
demand of steel
1.1 Basic judgment of China's medium-long term economy
increasing trend ,2006-2020
1.1.1 Analysis of China economy in 2005 to 2006
1.1.2 Forecast of economy developing trend from 2006 to 2020
1.2 Forecast of consumption of steel products in China,2006-2020
1.2.1 Main influencing factors of China's apparent consumption
of steel products
1.2.1.1 Macro economic policy is the short term influencing
factor of apparent consumption of steel products
1.2.1.2 GDP per capita is the main long term influencing factor
of apparent consumption of steel products 16
1.2.2 Forecast approach and Forecast model
1.2.2.1 Selection of forecast approach
1.2.2.2 Forecast Model
1.2.3 Establishment of model parameters
1.2.3.1 Forecast of GDP per capita
1.2.3.2 Forecast of Fixed assets investment ratio
1.2.3.3 Forecast of proportion the industry added value to GDP
1.2.3 Forecast of China's steel consumption from 2006 to 2020
2 Steel demand forecast by industries
2.1 Forecast of Steel consumption of building construction
industry from 2006 to 2020
2.1.1 Definition of Steel consumption of building construction
industry
2.1.2 Characteristics of Steel consumption of building
construction industry
2.1.2.1 Types of steel products used in building construction
industry
2.1.2.2 Consumption amount of steel products used in building
construction industry
2.1.2.3 Composition of Consumption amount of steel products used
in building construction industry
2.1.3 Forecast of Consumption amount of steel products used in
building construction industry from 2006 to 2020
2.1.3 .1 Forecast Approach
2.1.3 .2 Forecast Results
2.2 Steel consumption forecast of machinery industry from 2006
to 2020
2.2.1 Definition of machinery industry in China
2.2.2 General situation of China's machinery industry
development
2.2.2.1 Overview of China's machinery industry development
2.2.2.2 Composition of China's machinery industry development
2.2.3 Historical Steel consumption of machinery industry
2.2.3.1 General situation of Steel consumption
2.2.3.2 Steel consumption forecast of subsidiary industries
2.2.3.3Steel consumption of machinery industry by products types
2.2.4 Forecast of steel consumption of machinery industry from
2006 to 2020
2.2.4.1 Forecast Approach
2.2.4.2 Proportion forecast of sub-industries' proportion of
added value to GDP
2.2.4.3 Forecast of Steel consumption per ten thousand RMB added
value of sub-industries
2.3 Main subsidiary industries' steel consumption forecast of
machinery industry, 2006-2020
2.3.1 Shipbuilding industry
2.3.1.1 General situation of China's shipbuilding industry
2.3.1.2 Steel consumption of shipbuilding industry
2.3.1.3, Steel consumption forecast of shipbuilding industry in
the future
2.3.2Automobile
2.3.2.1 Production and sales analysis of Automobile industry in
China in 2005
2.3.2.2 The relationship of China's automobile retaining data
and GDP per capita 83
2.3.2. 3 Forecast of China's automobile production
2.3.2. 4, Steel consumption actuality of automobile
2.3.2. 5, Steel consumption forecast of China's automobile
2.3.3 Steel consumption forecast of China's home appliance
industry from 2006 to 2020
Tables
Table 1 1981-2005 Steel consumption and main economic guideline
19
Table 2 Forecast of GDP per capita 21
Table 3 Average fixed assets investment rate of Sixth Five
Years-Eighth Five Years 23
Table 4 Forecast of fixed assets investment rate 23
Table 5 2006-2020 Forecast date of China's fixed assets
investment rate and industry added value percentage 25
Table 6 2006-2020 China steel consumption forecast 26
Table 7 2002 Mechanism steel distributing situation of different
breeds 30
Table 8 1998-2002 Mechanism steel distributing situation of
different regions 30
Table 9 Inner structure of mechanism steel 31
Table 10 The relationship of citizen residence acreage per
capita and income 34
Table 11 2001 Steel consumption of China's new buildings per
unit 37
Table 12 Steel consumption forecast of citizen residence acreage
38
Table 13 Finished acreage forecast of non-residence architecture
41
Table 14 Steel consumption data of China's main steel structure
architecture 41
Table 15 Steel consumption forecast of non-residence
architecture 41
Table 16 Steel consumption of house used (ten thousand tons) 42
Table 17 Forecast of rail in the future 44
Table 18 Road mileage of past years (ten thousand kilometers) 45
Table 19 Road mileage and steel consumption forecast (except
speedway) 45
Table 20 Speedway mileage of pasts years 46
Table 21 Steel consumption forecast of speedway in the future 46
Table 22 Steel consumption forecast of tunnel and bridge 47
Table 23 Steel consumption of railway, highway, bridge, tunnel
(ten thousand tons) 47
Table 24 Forecast of port in the future 48
Table 25 Steel consumption per year forecast of riverbank, power
plant, marina 49
Table 26 Steel consumption per year forecast of mine building 50
Table 27 Steel consumption history data of circuitry, pipeline,
equipment installation 51
Table 28 Steel consumption forecast of circuitry, pipeline,
equipment installation 52
Table 29 Steel consumption forecast of fitment and ornament 53
Table 30 Steel consumption forecast collection of architecture
(ten thousand tons) 53
Table 31 Subsidiary industries' structure of mechanism 55
Table 32 2005 Main mechanism development situation the whole
country 56
Table 33 1998-2005 Steel consumption of machinery industry 59
Table 34 1992 Steel consumption structure of machinery industry
60
Table 35 2003 Steel consumption structure of machinery industry
60
Table 36 Percentage that subsidiary industries' added value of
mechanism takes to GDP 62
Table 37 Percentage forecast that metalwork added value takes to
GDP 63
Table 38 Percentage forecast that transportation equipment
manufacturing takes to GDP 65
Table 39 Percentage forecast that electric machine and equipment
manufacturing takes to GDP 65
Table 40 Percentage forecast that special equipment
manufacturing takes to GDP 66
Table 41 Steel consumption forecast of subsidiary industries'
added value per ten thousand RMB (ton/ten thousand RMB) 70
Table 42 Steel consumption forecast of subsidiary industries of
machinery industry (ten thousand tons) 71
Table 43 Percentage that the total steel consumption forecast
data of machinery industry takes to China's apparent steel
consumption 71
Table 44 China State Shipbuilding Corporation (unit: ten
thousand tons) 73
Table 45 Future capacity expansion plan 74
Table 46 Main guideline of civil ship of China Shipbuilding
Industry Corporation (ten thousand tons) 74
Table 47 2005 Shipbuilding finished of main China shipbuilding
corporation (unit: ten thousand deadweights) 75
Table 48 2005 New ship order of main China shipbuilding
corporation (unit: ten thousand deadweights) 75
Table 49 2005 Ship order being handed of main China shipbuilding
corporation (unit: ten thousand deadweights) 75
Table 50 2005 Gross industry production value of main China
shipbuilding corporation (unit: hundred million RMB) 76
Table 51 Sales income of main China shipbuilding corporation
(hundred million RMB) 76
Table 52 China finished shipbuilding quantity (ten thousand
deadweights) 77
Table 53 2005 Main economic guideline of China shipbuilding
industry (incompletely statistics) 78
Table 54 2002 Steel consumption structure of China shipbuilding
industry 79
Table 55 1990-2005 Steel consumption of shipbuilding industry 79
Table 56 Steel consumption coefficient of past years 80
Table 57 New ship global demand forecast every year of different
organizations before 2020 (ten thousand deadweights) 81
Table 58 Ship demand forecast of China in the future years (ten
thousand deadweights) 81
Table 59 Our country's shipbuilding production aand diesel
engine production amount
Table 60 Steel demand of China shipbuilding industry in the
future 82
Table 61 Gross steel demand forecast of China Automotive
Technology &Research Center 88
Table 62 Steel breeds and its proportion of automobile at
present 89
Table 63 Abrasion loss rate forecast of automobile industry in
the future of China (RMB/ton) 92
Table 64 Steel demand forecast of China automobile industry 92
Table 65 Steel demand forecast of home appliance industry 93
Figures
Figure 1 GDP and its growth speed in “The Tenth Five Year”
period 5
Figure 2 Fixed assets investment and its growth speed 6
Figure 3 Fixed assets investment increasing speed keeping on an
upsurge 6
Figure 4 Controllable income of town residents keeping an stable
growth speed 7
Figure 5 Goods structure of net export unit: hundred million
dollars 11
Figure 6 Proportion of different import and export methods
unit:% 12
Figure 7 Growth history of US steel production (it reaches the
crest 136 million tons in 1973) 13
Figure 8 Growth history of the former Soviet Union (it reaches
the crest 162 million tons in 1988) 13
Figure 9 Growth history of Japan (it reaches the crest 119.8
million tons in 1973) 13
Figure 10 The relationship of China apparent steel consumption
per capita and macro economy policy 15
Figure 11 The relationship of fixed assets investment rate and
macro view adjusts 16
Figure 12 The relationship of GDP per capita and steel
consumption per capita of China and Korea 17
Figure 13 The relationship of steel consumption per capita and
GDP per capita observe value of China 19
Figure 14 Result of model draws up 20
Figure 15 Industry added value's weight takes from GDP 24
Figure 16 1992-2002 Thread steel consumption 28
Figure 17 Architectural steel consumption through the years 29
Figure 18 The rate of architectural steel consumption to
national apparent steel consumption 29
Figure 19 Forecast method of town residence used steel amount 33
Figure 20 Residence building area per capita of town residence
34
Figure 21 Building area forecast per capita in city 35
Figure 22 Urbanization rate forecast though past years 36
Figure 23 Building refresh rate of town residence 36
Figure 24 Steel consumption data of reinforced concrete
structure 37
Figure 25 Living area per capita of village 39
Figure 26 China village population 39
Figure 27 Housing retention measure of China village 39
Figure 28 Residence building steel consumption of village
resident though years 40
Figure 29 The model draws up result of non-residence finished
construction area 40
Figure 30 China railway business mileage 43
Figure 31 Railway construction investment sum change of China
(ten million RMB) 44
Figure 32 Steel consumption forecast method of railway, pipeline
and equipment installation 50
Figure 33 The model draws up result of circuitry, pipeline and
equipment installation industry 52
Figure 34 Data source: China Machinery Industry Federation and
National Bureau of Statistics 57
Figure 35 1976-2005 Gross output value of machinery industry of
our country 57
Figure 36 Industry added value rate of machinery industry's
subsidiaries 58
Figure 37 Data source: China Machinery Industry Federation and
National Bureau of Statistics 58
Figure 38 Gross Industry output value rate of machinery
industry's subsidiaries 58
Figure 39 Steel consumption of machinery industry though past
years 59
Figure 40 Steel consumption forecast method of machinery
industry 62
Figure 41 Percentage of metal products industry to GDP of Korea,
Britain and France 63
Figure 42 Percentage of transport equipment manufacturing
industry to GDP of Korea, Britain and France 64
Figure 43 Percentage of electric machine and equipment
manufacturing industry to GDP of Korea, Britain and France 65
Figure 44 Percentage of special equipment manufacturing industry
to GDP of Korea, Britain and France 66
Figure 45 Steel consumption of added value per ten thousand RMB
of metal products industry (ton/ten thousand RMB) 67
Figure 46 Steel consumption of added value per ten thousand RMB
of transport equipment manufacturing industry (ton/ten thousand
RMB) 68
Figure 47 Steel consumption of added value per ten thousand RMB
of electric machine and equipment manufacturing industry
(ton/ten thousand RMB) 68
Figure 48 Steel consumption of added value per ten thousand RMB
of instrument, meter and cultural office equipment manufacturing
industry (ton/ten thousand RMB) 69
Figure 49 Steel consumption of added value per ten thousand RMB
of conventional machine manufacturing industry (ton/ten thousand
RMB) 69
Figure 50 Steel consumption of added value per ten thousand RMB
of special equipment manufacturing industry (ton/ten thousand
RMB) 70
Figure 51 Basic structure of main China shipbuilding corporation
73
Figure 52 1990-2006 China finished shipbuilding amounts (ten
thousand deadweights) 77
Figure 53 End of 2005 Global market share of main three
guidelines of China, Japan and Korea 78
Figure 54 1990-2005 China automobile and saloon car output
though past years 83
Figure 55 Compare of China automobile retention measure per
capita to countries and regions in the same development stage
(Korea, India, Taiwan) 84
Figure 56 Logarithm figure of relationship of automobile
retention measure per capita and GDP per capita 85
Figure 57 2006-2020 Automobile retention measure forecast per
thousand people of China 86
Figure 58 2006-2020 Automobile demand forecast per thousand
people of China 86
Figure 59 2006-2020 Gross automobile demand forecast of China 87
Figure 60 Steel consumption forecast of China automobile
industry 89
Figure 61 Change of steel comsumption of saloon car 90
Figure 62 Change of steel comsumption of heavy truck
91
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