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Research Report on China's Passenger Cars
Industry in 2007
Table of contents
Published: Mar 6th,2007
Price:USD830/ EUR 640 PDF version sent by emai
Introduction
In 2006, the passenger cars market has accelerated the rapid
growth of China's automobile industry. The domestic market and
the import & export market kept a fairly fast growth.The growth
of passenger cars market in 2006 was mainly accelerated by new
products and high-end products. No matter in the general market
or in a segment market, the sales of high-end products were much
more popular than those low-end ones.
In the past year of 2006, the domestic market, which has been
long manipulated by foreign brands, enjoyed a refreshing
reverse: with the joint effort of Chinese Automobile Industry
brands led by Chery and Geely, the sales share that "China
Self-owned" brands occupied has for the first time outgrown that
of Germany, Japan, South Korea and US.
According to the latest statistics, the China self-owned brands
brought about an upswing in the past 2006: Chery took the fourth
place in the domestic market with a total sales of 305,236 units
in 2006 and it topped the list in terms of Top 10 automobile
manufacturers in China with the fastest growth rate, up 60% over
its counter-parts.Brilliance and Geely have also exceeded a
record high sales of 200,000 units for the first time. Tianjin
FAW maintained a sales of 200,000 in the last year. The total
sales of the above four manufacturers mentioned is up to 900,000
units, which proves that "China self-owned" brands has become a
strong force in the automobile industry in 2006.
On the sales list of China's passenger cars in 2006, the first
one is Shanghai General Motor with a sales of 413.4 thousand
units, followed by Shanghai Volkswagen, 352 thousand units, and
FAW-Volkswagen, 350 thousand units.According to a senior analyst
in the automobile industry, the sales share that "China
Self-owned" brands occupied in China's passenger cars market in
2006 has for the first time outgrown that of Germany, Japan,
South Korea and US.
Looking forward of 2007, there will be more new styles by China
self-owned brands: Great Wall Motor's Perey, Florid and MVP
"Cool Bears"; Geely's China Dragon(CD); Shanghai Maple
Automobile's Marindo MB and Marindo MA; BYD Auto' Double-box F3,
F6 and F8; Chery's S12, S22 and A18; Brilliance's Chinese
M3(BC3); CHANA's Landwind; and Lifan's Double-box Lifan 520.
These brands will face fierce competition with foreign brands
and another round of China self-owned brands boom will begin.
This report has 163 pages and over 80,000 words including 37
tables and 54 figures.Based on the data from national
authorities such as China Association of Automobile
Manufacturers, a detailed analysis is given covering various
areas including production and sales, import & export and market
share distribution in major manufacturers.
Table of Contents
Chapter 1. Analysis on China's passenger cars market in 2006 7
1.1. Production and sales of passenger cars in 2006 7
1.1.1. Statistics on production and sales of passenger cars in
2006 8
1.1.2. Statistics on production and sales of passenger cars in
2006 (by size) 10
1.1.3. Production and sales of passenger cars of different
manufacturers in 2006 (by manufacturer) 15
1.1.4. Production and sales of passenger cars of different
manufacturers in 2006 (by car size) 18
1.1.5. Production and sales of major brains of passenger cars in
2006 25
1.2. Analysis on car export in 2006 45
1.2.1. Characteristics of car export in 2006 45
1.2.2. China's car import and export in 2006 45
1.3. Financial indexes of key manufacturers 48
Chapter 2. Analysis on sizes of passenger cars in 2006 49
2.1 New styles of passenger cars in 2006 49
2.2. Analysis on sales and price decrease of new cars in 2006 50
2.2.1. Accent of Beijing Hyundai Motor 50
2.2.2. Perla of Nanjing Fiat 50
2.2.3. Camry of Guangzhou Toyota 51
2.2.4 Civic of Guangzhou Honda 51
2.2.5 Chevrolet Lova of Shanghai GM 52
2.2.6. Buick LaCrosse of Shanghai GM 52
2.2.7. Bluebird Sylphy of Dongfeng Nissan 52
22.8. Dongfeng Peugeot 206 53
2.2.9. Dongfeng Citroen C-Triomphe 53
2.2.10. Geely King Kong 54
2.3. Production and sales of luxury cars in domestic market in
2006 54
2.4. Characteristics of domestic luxury cars market in 2006 55
2.5. Market analysis on various luxury car brands 57
2.5.1. Audi series 57
2.5.2. Crown cars 59
2.5.3. Brilliance BMW 60
2.5.4. Beijing Benz 61
2.5.5. Shanghai GM's Buick Royaum and Cadillac 63
2.5.6. Volvo S40 64
2.5.7. Chrysler 300C 65
2.5.8. Red Flag HQ3 66
Chapter 3. Analysis on the leading manufacturers of passenger
cars in 2006 67
3.1. Shanghai General Motor 67
3.1.1. Market performance 67
3.1.2. Analysis on characteristics of internal operation 68
3.1.3 Future trends forecast 69
3.2. Shanghai Volkswagen 69
3.2.1. Market performance 70
3.2.2. Analysis on characteristics of internal operation 70
3.2.3 Future trends forecast 71
3.3. FAW-Volkswagen 71
3.3.1. Market performance 71
3.3.2. Analysis on characteristics of internal operation 72
3.3.3 Future trends forecast 73
3.4. Chery Auto 73
3.4.1. Market performance 73
3.4.2. Analysis on characteristics of internal operation 74
3.4.3 Future trends forecast 75
3.5. Guangzhou Honda 76
3.5.1. Market performance 76
3.5.2. Analysis on characteristics of internal operation 76
3.5.3 Future trends forecast 77
3.6. Beijing Hyundai 78
3.6.1. Market performance 78
3.6.2. Analysis on characteristics of internal operation 79
3.6.3. Future trends forecast 80
3.7. Dongfeng Nissan 80
3.7.1. Market performance 80
3.7.2. Analysis on characteristics of internal operation 81
3.7.3 Future trends forecast 82
3.8. Changan Ford 82
3.8.1. Market performance 82
3.8.2. Analysis on characteristics of internal operation 83
3.8.3 Future trends forecast 84
3.9 Geely Auto 84
3.9.1. Market performance 84
3.9.2. Analysis on characteristics of internal operation 85
3.9.3. Future trends forecast 86
Chapter 4. Market analysis of passenger cars with small
discharge volume in 2006 86
4.1. Overall trend of development of passenger cars with small
discharge volume 87
4.1.1. Market status of passenger cars with small discharge
volume 87
4.1.2. Analysis on trends of passenger cars with small discharge
volume in 2006 88
4.1.3. Analysis on variations in trend by month, 89
4.1.4. Development speed of passenger cars with small discharge
volume 90
4.1.5. Composition of passenger cars with small discharge volume
91
4.1.6 Trends of the discharge volume of passenger cars with
small discharge volume 92
4.2. Influential factors 93
4.2.1. Environmental factors 93
4.2.2. Changes of the characteristics of market demand 94
4.2.3. Changes of the characteristics of market supply 94
4.2.4. Price changes of different styles of cars 95
4.3. Trends of economical cars market 96
4.3.1. Overall trend 96
4.3.2. Composition of 2-box or 3- box cars with small discharge
volume 97
4.3.3. Overall trend of segmented markets 98
4.3.4. Market analysis of mini-cars 99
4.3.5. Market analysis of mini-cars 103
4.4. Overall trend of the mini-car market 109
4.4.1. Analysis on trends of mini-cars market 109
4.4.2. Trends of production, sales and storage by mini-cars
manufacturers 111
4.4.3. Analysis on the manufacturers' performance 112
4.4.4. Analysis on changes of mini-car products 113
4.5. Future trends forecast 116
4.5.1 Influence of the environment and policies 116
4.5.2. Potential growth in export, which means different
opportunities to the manufacturers 117
4.5.3. Great impact on the car manufacturing industry imposed by
the tight monetary policy especially the increasing interest
rate 117
4.5.4. Few inducements for customers to increase their
consumption 117
4.5.5. Slight growth in the main regions with mid-and-west
areas' follow-up 118
4.5.6. The boom in medium and small cities and county-level
markets is expected to support the future market 118
Chapter 5. Prospects of passenger cars market in 2007 119
5.1. 2007 Forecast on the passenger cars market 119
5.1.1. Forecast on the production and sales in the passenger
cars industry 119
5.1.2. Forecast on demand in the passenger cars market 121
5.1.3. Forecast on the export of passenger cars 122
5.1.4. China self-owned car brands development 124
5.2 Market demand of double-box cars in 2007 127
5.3. The medium-level cars market in 2007 128
5.4. New cars to be launched in 2007 129
5.4.1. Changan-Ford-Mazda Demio 129
5.4.2. Shanghai Volkswagen-Skoda Octavia 130
5.4.3. Chrysler VOyager 131
5.4.4. FAW-Volkswagen Passat B6 (Magotan) 131
5.5. Sales objectives of car manufacturers in 2007 134
5.5.1. Dongfeng Peugeot Citroen Auto 134
5.5.2. Chery Auto 134
5.5.3. Tianjing FAW 135
5.5.4. Beijing Hyundai 136
5.5.5. FAW-Toyota 136
5.5.6. Changan Ford 137
5.5.7. Shanghai General Motor 138
5.5.8. Shanghai Volkswagen 138
5.5.9. Guangzhou Toyota 139
5.5.10. Geely Auto 139
5.5.11. Dongfeng Nissan 140
5.5.12.. Guangzhou Honda 141
5.5.13. Southeast Mitsubishi 141
5.5.14. Shanghai Auto 142
5.5.15. FAW-Volkswagen 142
5.5.16. Brilliance 142
5.6. Development forecast on the car industry 143
5.6.1. Capacity forecast on car production 143
5.6.2. Car sales forecast 144
5.6.3. Analysis on car consumption 146
5.6.4. Car price forecast 151
5.6.5. Car profitability forecast 155
5.6.6. Estimation of leading manufacturers in 2007
5.7.7. China self-owned car brands development 158
Appendix tables 161
Appendix figures 162
Appendix tables
Table 1. Statistics of passenger cars production and sales in
Dec., 2006 8
Table 2. Statistics of passenger cars production and sales by
style in Dec., 2005 10
Table 3. Production and Sales of top 5 car manufacturers in
Dec., 2006 15
Table 4. Statistics on production and sales of passenger cars
manufacturers in Dec., 2006 19
Table 5. Statistics on production and sales of major passenger
cars brands in Dec., 2006 27
Table 6. Key financial indexes of leading enterprises (groups)
from Jan. to Nov., 2006 48
Table 7. List of production and sales of luxury cars in the
domestic market in 2006 55
Table 8. Sales of brand cars owned by Shanghai General Motor in
2006 67
Table 9. Financial performance of Shanghai General Motor in 2006
68
Table 10. Sales of brand cars owned by Shanghai Volkswagen in
2006 70
Table 11. Financial performance of Shanghai Volkswagen in 2006
70
Table 12. Sales of brand cars owned by FAW-Volkswagen in 2006 71
Table 13. Financial performance of FAW-Volkswagen in 2006 72
Table 14. Sales of brand cars owned by Chery Auto in 2006 73
Table 15. Financial performance of Chery Auto in 2006 74
Table 16. Sales of brand cars owned by Guangzhou Honda in 2006
76
Table 17. Financial performance of Guangzhou Honda in 2006 Unit:
10,000 yuan 76
Table 18. Sales of brand cars owned by Beijing Hyundai in 2006
78
Table 19. Financial performance of Beijing Hyundai in 2006 79
Table 20. Financial performance of Moebius company in 2006 79
Table 21. Sales of brand cars owned by Dongfeng Nissan in 2006
80
Table 22. Financial performance of Dongfeng Nissan in 2006 81
Table 23. Sales of brand cars owned by Changan-Ford in 2006 82
Table 24. Financial performance of Changan-Ford in 2006 83
Table 25. Sales of brand cars owned by Geely Auto in 2006 84
Table 26. Financial performance of Geely Auto in 2006 85
Table 27. Comparison of domestic macroeconomic indexes in recent
years 933
Table 28. Comparison of exports of four self-owned brands
mini-sized passenger cars 102
Table 29. Schedule of launches of new domestic cars in 2007 132
Table 30. GDP by capital and penetration rate of cars 146
Table 31. Forecast on the number of retained cars in 2006 and in
2010 147
Table 32. Percentage of car-owned families of all families at
different income levels Unit: % 148
Table 33. Car consumption expanding to the second and third
level areas regularly 150
Table 34. Proportion of sales and storage increased by month in
2006 Unit: 10,000 units 151
Table 35. Estimated influence on the market share by the
increase of new car styles 152
Table 36. Mechanism of price formation of different cars 153
Table 37. Recent new product plans of self-owned brands 158
Appendix figures
Figure 1. Top 10 basic-style cars manufactures in the sales list
of 2006 18
Figure 2. Comparison between passenger car export in 2005 and
that in 2006 46
Figure 3. Top 10 countries importing cars in 2006 46
Figure 4. Top 10 countries exporting cars in 2006 47
Figure 5. Comparison between car export in 5 continents in 2005
and that in 2006 47
Figure 6. Comparison between car import in 5 continents in 2005
and that in 2006 48
Figure 7. China's car export, 1998-2006 unit: unit 48
Figure 8. List of market shares occupied by different luxury
brand cars in domestic market at the end of 2006 55
Figure 9. Production of New Audi A6L by month, 2006 59
Figure 10. Production of New Audi A4 by month, 2006 59
Figure 11. Production of Crown by month, 2006 60
Figure 12. Production of Brilliance-BMW by month, 2006 61
Figure 13. Production of Beijing Benz by month, 2006 62
Figure 14. Production of Cadillac by month, 2006 64
Figure 15. Production of Buick Royaum by month, 2006 64
Figure 16. Production of Volvo S402006 by month, 2006 655
Figure 17. Production of Chrysler 300C2006 by month, 300 66
Figure 18. Trends of passenger cars with small discharge volume,
2003-2006 87
Figure 19. Trends of passenger cars with small discharge volume,
2004-2006 88
Figure 20. Comparison between growth rate of each car style with
small discharge volume and that of all passenger cars,2005-2006
90
Figure 21. Comparison of market shares among passenger cars with
small discharge volume 91
Figure 22. Comparison of passenger cars with small discharge
volume by discharge volume, 2005-2006 92
Figure 23. Overall trends of economical cars market 96
Figure 24. Trend of structural changes of two or three-box
economical cars 97
Figure 25. Overall trend of development of passenger cars with
small discharge volume in 2006 98
Figure 26. Analysis on the changes of major minibus brands'
market shares 99
Figure 27. Analysis on the changes of small-sized cars' market
shares, 2003-2006 103
Table 28. Comparison of structures of different brands,
2005-2006 105
Figure 29. Analysis on the changes of boxes in different brand
in 2005 and in 2006 1066
Figure 30. Rock-bottom price variations in core cities in 2006
108
Figure 31. Rock-bottom price variations of most small-sized
3-box cars in core cities 109
Figure 32. Sales trend of mini-bus market, 2004-2006 110
Figure 33. Trends of production, sales and storage by mini-car
manufacturers 111
Figure 34. Changes of mini-car manufacturers' market shares 112
Figure 35. Comparison between the market share of raised-head
mini-bus and that of flat-head mini-car, 2001-2006 113
Figure 36. Proportions of different car body length, 2004-2006
114
Figure 37. Decreasing investment into the entire vehicle
production industry, 1984-2004 143
Figure 38. Comparison between China's OEM and Foreign
manufacturers' scale economy 144
Figure 39. Fast growth of products related to passenger cars in
2006 144
Figure 40. Trends and Forecast of annual sales of China's cars,
1999-2010 145
Figure 41. Trends and Forecast of annual car sales of China, US,
Japan, Germany and French, 1999-2010 145
Figure 42. Relations between people's disposable income and the
production of cars Unit: 10,000 units 147
Figure 43 Average income per capita in urban and rural areas in
recent years Unit: Yuan, % 147
Figure 44. The number of retained cars by every 100 households
at different income levels 148
Figure 45. Car consumption of households at different income
levels and the proportion they occupied 149
Figure 46. Comparison between rich families and well-off
families 149
Figure 47. Top 10 concerns when people buy their private cars
Unit: % 149
Figure 48. Emerging and booming of the second and third level
areas supporting the lasting growth of car consumption 151
Figure 49. Around 20% decrease in prices of different car
products since 2004 151
Figure 50. Percentage of the price of car brands above their
foreign counterparts 154
Figure 51. Sequential comparison of prices of domestic cars in
all months, 2004-2006 155
Figure 52. Profitability trend of the entire vehicle production
industry, 2001-2006 156
Figure 53. Passenger cars industry chain 159
Figure 54. Added value along the passenger cars industry chain
159
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